ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF MANAGERIAL DECISIONS AT THE MACRO AND MICRO LEVELS

Authors

Oksana Chernega, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Uyrii Yakovenko, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Anastasia Chepurnova, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Oleksandra Makieieva, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Olena Nieizviestna, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Natalia Ivanova, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Viktorija Koverza, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Volodymyr Kotkovskyi, National University "Odessa Law Academy"; Yevhenii Tryhubchenko, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Tetiana Kozhukhova, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Yuliia Bocharova, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Lyubov Shevchenko, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Valentina Barabanova, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Valery Yankovsky, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Yuliia Lyzhnyk, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Yuliia Vorobiova, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Viktoriia Koshel, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Ganna Gorina, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Galina Bohatyryova, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Olha Nikolaichuk, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Svitlana Revutska, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Nataliia Pryimak, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Radion Nykyforov, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Oleksandr Romanykha, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Kateryna Khavrova, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Nataly Lokhman, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Maria Kolchuk, PricewaterhouseCoopers GmbH Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft (PwC Germany); Alexander Kravtsov, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Eugene Klevtsov, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

Synopsis

The theoretical and practical aspects of the application of the econometric approach to making managerial decisions in a crisis at the micro and macro levels are highlighted. Theoretical aspects determine the basic categories of the research problem: managerial decision, stages of managerial decision-making to determine the feasibility of using econometric methods, crisis and crisis phenomena, econometric approach. The specifics of making managerial decisions in a crisis at the micro and macro levels have been determined; the characteristic features, areas of problem solving and methods for solving managerial problems are considered, depending on the level of their formalization. Practical aspects highlight the rationale for the use of econometric methods at the stage of problem identification: identification of crisis phenomena in the relevant areas; a quantitative analysis of the crisis made it possible to identify and determine the imbalances. The advantages and disadvantages of the econometric approach to managerial decision-making are determined; general econometric methods of substantiating managerial decisions and their consequences are described. The features and advantages of Data-driven decision-making over Highest Paid Person's Opinion are determined; the types of information and analytical support of managerial decisions and the methods used for its formation are determined.

The author's understanding of the concepts "econometric approach to managerial decision making", "information and analytical support of managerial decisions" is proposed.

Practical aspects highlight the feasibility of using econometric methods and at the stage of justifying managerial decisions – the use of econometric methods in accordance with the scope of application, taking into account its specificity and state: a matrix "economic security – standard of living – innovative development" has been developed to justify the decision on the application of strategies to ensure economic security through changes in the level of innovative development and the standard of living of the population of the region (transformation strategy, innovative development strategy, human development strategy and growth strategy) on the basis of correlation-regression analysis, calculation of partial elasticity coefficients, a potentially most effective variant of reconfiguring the functional components of the innovation infrastructure was established; a model of authentic management of the development of the Ukrainian tourist services market has been developed, which assumes the use of specific mechanisms of authentic management and accounting for the authenticity of the cultural and historical resources of local tourism markets, the asymmetry of infrastructural and socio-economic development of markets, the spatial polarization of the location of climatic and recreational factors of local tourist markets; based on the results of the taxonomic analysis of the state of the hotel and restaurant industry, managerial solutions were proposed for the implementation of the strategy for the development of the hotel and restaurant industry for the coming period, including activities at the national level and at the level of individual business entities; an algorithm for making optimal decisions based on the development of the innovative potential of personnel has been developed: defining the problems of enterprise development; search for the reasons for the retardation of the development of the enterprise; determination of the reasons for the retardation of the development of the enterprise; determination of optimal solutions depending on the formulated problem; development of recommendations for achieving strategic goals, based on the construction of a "tree of opportunities"; a cognitive map (graph) of the process of making strategic decisions in the sphere of making strategic changes at mining and processing enterprises was built taking into account the influence of the following concepts: goals of strategic changes; the goals of the enterprise strategy implementation; the duration of the change lag; the level of encouragement of the team of changes; threshold opportunities for strategic change; unique opportunities for strategic change; average opportunities for strategic change; sufficiency of the potential for strategic changes; resistance to change; fiduciary corporate culture.

ISBN 978-617-7319-37-4 (on-line)
ISBN 978-617-7319-38-1 (print)

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How to Cite: Chernega, O., Yakovenko, Uy., Chepurnova, A., Makieieva, O., Nieizviestna, O., Ivanova, N. et. al.; Ivanova, N., Kozhukhova, T. (Eds.) (2021). Econometric modeling of managerial decisions at the macro and micro levels. Kharkiv: РС ТЕСHNOLOGY СЕNTЕR, 200. doi: http://doi.org/10.15587/978-617-7319-37-4

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Indexing:

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INTRODUCTION
Natalia Ivanova, Tetiana Kozhukhova

CHAPTER 1 Features of making managerial decisions in a crisis at the micro and macro levels
Oksana Chernega, Uyrii Yakovenko, Anastasia Chepurnova, Oleksandra Makieieva

CHAPTER 2 Quantitative crisis analysis: identifying and defining imbalances
Olena Nieizviestna, Natalia Ivanova, Viktorija Koverza, Volodymyr Kotkovskyi, Yevhenii Tryhubchenko

CHAPTER 3 Identification of managerial problem
Tetiana Kozhukhova, Yuliia Bocharova, Lyubov Shevchenko, Olena Nieizviestna

CHAPTER 4 Econometric approach to justification of managerial decisions
Natalia Ivanova, Tetiana Kozhukhova, Valentina Barabanova, Valery Yankovsky

CHAPTER 5 Information and analytical support for the development of a strategy for the development of the innovative infrastructure of Ukraine
Yuliia Bocharova, Yuliia Lyzhnyk, Yuliia Vorobiova, Viktoriia Koshel

CHAPTER 6 The use of cluster analysis tools in substantiating managerial decisions for the formation of local strategies for the development of tourism services markets
Ganna Gorina, Galina Bohatyryova, Olha Nikolaichuk, Svitlana Revutska

CHAPTER 7 Taxonomic analysis of strategic decisions for the development of the hotel and restaurant industry
Olha Nikolaichuk, Nataliia Pryimak, Radion Nykyforov, Oleksandr Romanykha

CHAPTER 8 Making optimal decisions based on the development of the innovative potential of personnel
Kateryna Khavrova, Oksana Chernega, Nataly Lokhman, Maria Kolchuk

CHAPTER 9 Making optimal strategic decisions in conditions of weakly structured systems using cognitive modeling techniques
Nataliia Pryimak, Kateryna Khavrova, Alexander Kravtsov, Eugene Klevtsov

CONCLUSIONS
Natalia Ivanova, Tetiana Kozhukhova

Author Biographies

Oksana Chernega, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Acting Rector
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5659-3808

Uyrii Yakovenko, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

Postgraduate Student
Department of Economics and International Economic Relations
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1653-0834

Anastasia Chepurnova, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade
Oleksandra Makieieva, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

Postgraduate Student
Department of Economics and International Economic Relations
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9837-8137

Olena Nieizviestna, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

PhD, Associate Professor, Director of Institute
Educational and Scientific Institute of Economics, Management and Administration
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6135-6524

Natalia Ivanova, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

Doctor of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Head of Department
Department of Marketing, Management and Public Administration
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5010-2668

Viktorija Koverza, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

PhD, Associate Professor
Department of Finance, Accounting and Taxation
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1465-0584

Volodymyr Kotkovskyi, National University "Odessa Law Academy"

Doctor of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor
Department of Socio-Political and Economic Disciplines
Kryvyi Rih Faculty
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5150-1751

Yevhenii Tryhubchenko, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

Postgraduate Student
Department of Economics and International Economic Relations
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1368-4814

Tetiana Kozhukhova, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

Doctor of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Vice-Rector
ID ORCID   http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6758-9890
Mail to   interlink@donnuet.edu.ua

Yuliia Bocharova, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

Doctor of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Head of Department
Department of Economics and International Economic Relations
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4829-8948

Lyubov Shevchenko, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

PhD, Associate Professor
Department of Finance, Accounting and Taxation
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2188-1735

Valentina Barabanova, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

PhD, Associate Professor, Director of Institute
Educational and Scientific Institute of Restaurant and Hotel Business and Tourism
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2954-4090

Valery Yankovsky, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

Postgraduate Student
Department of Finance, Accounting and Taxation
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3998-6594

Yuliia Lyzhnyk, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

Senior Lecturer
Department of Economics and International Economic Relations
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3432-7581

Yuliia Vorobiova, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

Postgraduate Student
Department of Economics and International Economic Relations
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6508-6472

Viktoriia Koshel, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

PhD, Senior Lecturer
Department of Economics and International Economic Relations
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1807-7754

Ganna Gorina, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Head of Department
Department of Tourism and Country Studies
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0900-0640

Galina Bohatyryova, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

PhD, Associate Professor
Department of Tourism and Country Studies
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3790-4735

Olha Nikolaichuk, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

PhD, Associate Professor
Head of the Department of Technology in Restaurant Industry, Hotel and Restaurant Business and Entrepreneurship
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7197-4713

Svitlana Revutska, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

PhD, Associate Professor
Department of Foreign Philology, Ukrainian Studies and Social and Law Disciplines
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8969-1295

Nataliia Pryimak, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

Doctor of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor
Department of Marketing, Management and Public Administration
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0313-2581

Radion Nykyforov, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

PhD, Associate Professor, First Vice-Rector
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9823-9551

Oleksandr Romanykha, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

PhD, Associate Professor
Department of Economics and Business
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4695-3985

Kateryna Khavrova, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

Doctor of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Acting Director of Institute
Educational and Scientific Institute of Business and Hospitality
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9376-0700

Nataly Lokhman, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Head of Department
Department of Economics and Business
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8525-8902

Maria Kolchuk, PricewaterhouseCoopers GmbH Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft (PwC Germany)

Associate in the Internal Audit & GRC Department
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9651-7586

Alexander Kravtsov, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

PhD, Associate Professor
Department of Technology in Restaurant Industry, Hotel and Restaurant Business and Entrepreneurship
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6709-2753

Eugene Klevtsov, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade

Postgraduate Student
Department of Technology in Restaurant Industry, Hotel and Restaurant Business and Entrepreneurship
ID ORCID   https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9690-1748

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