Quantitative crisis analysis: identifying and defining imbalances

Authors

Olena Nieizviestna, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Natalia Ivanova, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Viktorija Koverza, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade; Volodymyr Kotkovskyi, National University "Odessa Law Academy"; Yevhenii Tryhubchenko, Mykhailo Tuhan-Baranovskyi Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15587/978-617-7319-37-4.ch2

Keywords:

Managerial decision, personnel innovation potential, managerial decision making model, strategic management, managerial decision making mechanism, cognitive model, crisis, strategic process concept, macroeconomic imbalances, strategic decision, problem, strategic change, econometric approach, SWOT analysis, data-driven decision-making, Potential square, Highest Paid Person's Opinion, competitiveness, data-driven decision making capability, efficiency, nformation and analytical support of managerial decisions, regression model, econometrics, canonical analysis, taxonomic analysis, cluster analysis, tree of opportunities, migration policy, economic security, innovative development, living standards of the population, innovation infrastructure, development management, local development strategies, regional tourism markets services, tourism, hotel and restaurant industry

Abstract

Dedicated to the study of the possibility of using quantitative analysis tools to determine macroeconomic imbalances as potential harbingers of the spread of the crisis. It is noted that in modern conditions of a rapid course of crisis situations, it is advisable to use nonlinear models, an example of which is nonparametric models based on the signaling approach, providing for the use of macroindicators (indicators) characterizing the economy's resistance to crises. To predict the emergence of negative trends in the development of the economy in the future, the authors developed and proposed for use a regression model with performance indicators, which reflects the dependence of the probability of the onset of the period of "crisis" on a number of economic indicators and carried out its approbation for the Ukrainian economy. Forecasting results for 2021–2022 They made it possible to determine the deviations of the Ukrainian economy from the trajectory of sustainable development. The authors indicated the corrective measures of economic policy on the part of the macroeconomic regulation authorities in order to suspend the inertial development of the forecast situation.


ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF MANAGERIAL DECISIONS AT THE MACRO AND MICRO LEVELS

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22-43

Published

November 5, 2021

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Copyright (c) 2021 Oksana Chernega, Uyrii Yakovenko, Anastasia Chepurnova, Oleksandra Makieieva, Olena Nieizviestna, Natalia Ivanova, Viktorija Koverza, Volodymyr Kotkovskyi, Yevhenii Tryhubchenko, Tetiana Kozhukhova, Yuliia Bocharova, Lyubov Shevchenko, Valentina Barabanova, Valery Yankovsky, Yuliia Lyzhnyk, Yuliia Vorobiova, Viktoriia Koshel, Ganna Gorina, Galina Bohatyryova, Olha Nikolaichuk, Svitlana Revutska, Nataliia Pryimak, Radion Nykyforov, Oleksandr Romanykha, Kateryna Khavrova, Nataly Lokhman, Maria Kolchuk, Alexander Kravtsov, Eugene Klevtsov

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

Quantitative crisis analysis: identifying and defining imbalances. (2021). In O. Chernega, U. Yakovenko, A. Chepurnova, O. Makieieva, O. Nieizviestna, N. Ivanova, V. Koverza, V. Kotkovskyi, Y. Tryhubchenko, T. Kozhukhova, Y. Bocharova, L. Shevchenko, V. Barabanova, V. Yankovsky, Y. Lyzhnyk, Y. Vorobiova, V. Koshel, G. Gorina, G. Bohatyryova, O. Nikolaichuk, S. Revutska, N. Pryimak, R. Nykyforov, O. Romanykha, K. Khavrova, N. Lokhman, M. Kolchuk, A. Kravtsov, & E. Klevtsov, ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF MANAGERIAL DECISIONS AT THE MACRO AND MICRO LEVELS (pp. 22–43). Kharkiv: TECHNOLOGY CENTER PC. https://doi.org/10.15587/978-617-7319-37-4.ch2